Real Estate Newsletter Saturday March 13, 2010
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The latest real estate-related information
Davis, CA, Market Conditions Mortgage Rates
Price Range Market Condition
Up to $300,000 Buyers' Market
$300,001 to $400,000 Buyers' Market
$400,001-$500,000 Buyers' Market
$500,001-$600,000 Neutral Market
$600,001-$700,000 Buyers' Market
$700,001-$800,000 Sellers Market
$800,001-$1,000,000 Buyers' Market
Over $1,000,000 Neutral Market
Income Properties Buyers' Market
Estimates reflect Whitcombe & Co.'s subjective assessment of Davis real estate market conditions based on sales and listing data, general market activity, and buyer and seller attitudes.  Updated 09/08/06.

*  A sellers' real estate market is indicated when homes sell quickly at or above their listing prices, and/or when inventories are low.

*  A neutral real estate market is indicated when homes sell at or just below their listing prices within a reasonable period of time, and/or inventories are moderate.

*  A buyers' real estate market is indicated when homes tend to sell for significantly less than their list prices, remain on the market for longer periods of time, and/or inventories are high.

Latest Davis Area Real Estate News, by Whitcombe & Co.
Housing Materials Costs Rise, 09/08/06
Investors Business Daily reports that the price of building materials has increased by eight percent in the last year.  It writes:

"Costs rose 27 percent for gypsum boards, 20 percent for plastics, 11 percent for cement, and 6 percent for sheet metal siding. According to the Consumer Price Index, housing costs edged up 4 percent for borrowers from July 2005."

National Housing Sales Fall, But Davis Sales Strong, 08/23/06
National home sales fell significantly in July.  Here is a story about it.  

In contrast, in Davis, sales were the highest since early 2004, with 75 escrows closed.

Regional Home Prices Fall Year-Over-Year, 08/16/06
The Sacramento Bee has a story about falling home prices in the Central Valley region here.  If you want specific information about Davis housing prices, subscribe to my email newsletter (by registering for the MLS on this website).
Davis Rental Market Loosening, 08/15/06
Vacancy rates for rental housing in Davis have increased a bit, and will likely top 5.0% this year.  Still, my family's property management company Tandem Properties, which operates about 1800 units in Davis, doesn't have any vacancies for next year.  The Sacrament Bee has a story about this subject here
Renting Becoming More Attractive, 08/10/06
Renting is becoming a very attractive option for young people, as they have been increasingly priced out of the market for homes and condo.  Indeed, some twenty-somethings I know claim they have accepted the fact that they will never be home owners, and have resigned themselves to being renters, while investing their money in other things.  USA Today has an interesting article on this subject here.
Remodel Pitfalls?, 08/05/06
With Davis home prices so high, many buyers are considering remodeling an older home as an option.  Yahoo has an interesting article on this subject here.
Davis Market Update, 06/19/06
Almost everyone I talk to is interested in real estate market conditions in Davis. The Enterprise published an article on this subject today.

The Enterprise article is a bit out-of-date, but generally accurate.

The most important point to grasp currently is how the Davis market appears to be distinguishing itself from the Sacramento market, and the rest of the Central Valley in general. Just across the Causeway, the market appears poised to drop substantially in places like Natomas and Elk Grove. In those areas, inventories continue to climb every week, and the time homes sit on the market is rising.  Inventories levels in some areas are approaching 1 year.

In Davis, the time that sold homes sat on the market was 43 days in May 2006, up from a ridiculously low 20 days in June 2005. But 43 days is not exactly a long average time on market. Further, after peaking in May, inventories in Davis have been gradually falling for about the last month. After reaching a high of about 260 homes on the market, there are now 243 in the Davis area. Further, the $300,000 to $500,000 price range continues to exhibit signs of a sellers' market.  And after some significant but not radical downward price adjustments, a spurt of activity this month has moved the $500,000 to $600,000 range into sellers' market territory (all of this is based on my humble though educated opinions). In many parts of Sacramento, these market segments are deteriorating.

That said, Davis has already seen some modest downward price adjustments, in the range of 7 to 9 percent down from the price peak last summer, but has recently stabilized. Will the Davis market remain stable as the Sacramento market falls? Only time will tell, but one thing is clear: As of now, the fundamentals in Davis are far, far, better than those in many parts of Sacramento.
Would you care if someone died in your new home?, 04/30/06
I recently gave a listing presentations to the executor of an estate charged with selling the former home of two recently deceased gentlemen.  The home was a remarkable example of classic late 1960's California architecture.  The house was in need of major cosmetic renovation.  But it also had another problem, the gravity of which has long been a topic of debate in the real estate community.  In one of the home's four bedrooms, one of its former long-time inhabitants recently died.

An interesting and contentious issue in the history of real property law has been: Under what circumstances must a seller disclose the occurrence of a death in a home placed up for sale?  In a famous case read by every first-year law student, a court concluded that where a home's previous owner had been the victim of a violent murder, potential buyers must be advised of this fact.  In a similar vein, another court held that a seller was required to disclose that his home was widely believed to be "haunted."

At any rate, the NY Times has an interesting article on this general subject today.  Here is a link to it.

Fed to Stop Raising Rates?, 04/27/06
Ben Bernanke, the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, indicated at a hearing of the Congressional Joint Economic Committee today that the Fed may hold off on further interest rate increases for at least a while.  While he did not indicate precisely when rates would stop rising, this is the first sign we've seen that the end of the rate cycle may be near.  We can now see the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel.  Here is a story about it.

The end of interest rate increases would be good news for both the housing market and the stock market.  I have been concerned for several months that the Fed would (once again) overdo the rate increases, and push interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy, the housing market in particular, into a steep downturn.  If rates stabilize now, before housing prices have seen a serious downturn (only about 10% from the peak in Davis so far), the mythical "soft landing" in the housing market, followed by a period of slow but steady appreciation, could become reality.

Yolo Immune to Big Earthquakes?, 04/18/06
The Daily Democrat has an interesting article about the relatively low risk posed by earthquakes here in Yolo County.  The only major fault in Yolo is in the extreme North-western part of the county, far from Davis.  Here is the article.
Spring Listings Coming Online, 04/06/06
Every Spring, we see a flood of new listings as sellers seek to take advantage of the Spring "nesting instinct."  This year is no exception.  There have been 24 new listings placed on the MLS in the last 6 days.

Normally, we see a concomitant flood of Spring buyers.  But this year, the record rainfall has slowed buyer activity significantly.  However, I am cautiously optimistic based on the increased sales activity in March, and solid leading indicators such as website traffic and buyer contacts to my office.

Davis School Enrollment Plummeting, 04/03/06
Enrollment in Davis public schools is going to drop every year for the next nine years, according to a report released by School District consultant Vern Webber.  The number of students will begin to rise again in 2015, according to the Webber.  Here is a story about it.

The main practical issue this gives rise to among average Davis residents is:  "Which elementary school is going to be closed?"

On a more philosophical level, one is tempted to ask, "What type of community is Davis becoming?"  And it is hard to miss the irony of the situation:  The support-system for kids in Davis (schools and otherwise) has contributed to extremely high home prices, which in turn has priced-out the vast majority of people with school-aged kids.

Middle of Davis Market Heating Up?, 04/01/06
It appears that two segments of the Davis real estate market are beginning to heat-up.  Specifically, activity was quite robust in the $500,000-$600,000 and $700,000-$800,000 ranges during March.  A surge in pending sales followed listing price decreases by  about half the sellers in the former category.  The March surge in buyer activity occurred in spite of a record number of rainy days in March.

The million dollar-plus range is another story.  There were no sales over one million in March, while several new listings in that category emerged.

New Educational Requirements For Agents?, 03/18/06
The Business Journal has an article about a bill that would increase the educational requirements for getting a real estate license in California. The Journal writes:

"[A real estate agent's license] is a quickly attained license compared to the seven years or more of training required for doctors or attorneys, or the two to four years -- plus internships and externships -- for nursing licensees.

"And while a real estate agent isn't potentially dealing with life and death, the agent is handling the most valuable asset many people will ever own...

"The bill would require would-be agents to complete three classes -- one of them in real estate law -- before taking the test and getting the license."

The average consumer might be surprised to learn that real estate agents are not required to have any formal education regarding real estate law. Given that a residential real estate transaction is essentially a complex legal transaction, that has always struck me as odd. In essence, quite often there will be no person involved in a real estate transaction who actually understands the transaction on anything but a superficial level.

I would go further than the current bill, and require that current agents that have never taken a real estate law course should be required to do so, and impose continuing legal education requirements on all agents.
Davis Prices Near Highs, Sales Volume Way Down, 03/03/06
Median per square foot prices for Davis real estate rose to almost $357 per square foot for sales closed in February 2006, up from about $339 the previous month.  This is close to the high of $364 seen during the blistering market of July 2005.  

Still, this median price increase is not to be blindly taken as a sign that the hot market is back.  For one thing, February 2006 sales volume was down almost 50% from February 2005, with only 24 sales of residential non-investment units.  For another, the time on market has increased from an average of 22 days in both February 2005 and July 2005 to 55 days now.  Generally, the time on market figures appear to have leveled off for the time being.  The next few months will tell us much about how 2006 will shape-up for the Davis real estate market.

CFHA Offers 40 Year Loan, 02/21/06
The California Housing Finance Agency (CHFA) has decided to offer a 40 year fixed rate loan.  This will make it slightly easier for first-time home buyers to qualify for a mortgage loan.  The CHFA loans are generally about a full percentage point (100 basis points) below market rate loans.  However, these loans are only available for homes under a specified price ceiling.  In Yolo and Sacramento Counties the ceiling is currently $429,620.  The Bee has a story about this issue here.
Middle of Davis Market Picking Up? 02/15/06
The middle of the Davis real estate market has heated up a bit over the last week, with an average of more than two pending sales per day.  The $500,000 to $600,000 range has moved solidly into sellers' market conditions.  This rate is similar to last February, which was the beginning of a red-hot spring and summer market in Davis.  Then again, the weather over the past week has been decidedly non-winter-like, and the market may cool again with the outdoor temperature.   
Men Fear Commitment, Loan Defaults Up, Posted 02/12/06
The NY Times has an interesting article about the trend towards single women buying homes, and single men not.  That has been my experience.  I see a fair number of single women looking to purchase houses or condos, but very, very few single men.

In other news, loan defaults in the Sacramento region are on the rise.  This problem could get worse if home values continue to fall, as they have since about July, according to my analysis.  Aside from homeowners' pure inability to make payments, defaults also occur when people conclude that the amount of money they will save by defaulting on a mortgage exceeds the cost of the negative credit consequences associated with that action.  For example, if someone owes $100,000 more on their mortgage than their home is worth, and is living a poor lifestyle in order to make payments, they may quit the mortgage.  The bank takes the house, but the loan goes away.  If this set of economic incentives becomes prominent, we may see more foreclosure sales.

Whitcombe & Co. Has Highest Average Sale, Posted 02/02/06
Whitcombe & Co. had the highest average transaction value for Davis residential properties of any agency with 5 or more sales in Davis in 2005.  The numbers, according to the MLS, were as follows:
Agency

Average Davis Transaction Value In 2005

Whitcombe & Co. $688,888
Coldwell Banker Davis $631,760
Lyons Davis $630,439
Hearth Stone Properties $532,700
RE/Max Gold Davis $525,939
Century 21 Davis $469,750
Tandemonium, Posted 01/12/06
Tandem Properties of Davis has responded to the tougher rental market in Davis with a new event called Tandemonium. During the event, students are whisked around town on busses, fed, and generally entertained while apartment managers showcase the selling points of the various rental units. Here is a story about this year's event from the California Aggie.
Inventories Rise, Buyers Get Deals, Posted 01/01/06
It's no secret that the inventory of homes for sale has been rising in the Central Valley. There are recent articles about this subject here and here.

Davis still has relatively low inventories, however.

Interestingly, Davis home buyers have been driving harder bargains than buyers in North Natomas, at least based on sales closed in December 2005. In Davis, many sales were executed significantly below the list price. In Natomas, where inventories are sky-high, fewer sales occurred below list price, and when they did, it was almost always a token about (say $5000 or so below list). There may be good reasons for this, but I would guess that Sacramento buyers' agents are just too eager to close a sale, and are thus hesitant to risk loosing a sale by advising clients to play hardball in negotiations. The flood of agents into the real estate profession means that many agents are very hungry.

In this environment, approaching a listing agent may be a big mistake. I would advise buyers to hire an independent buyers' agent that will push sellers to their limit.
Building Materials Prices Up, Raised Foundations, Posted 12/03/05
The Sacramento Business Journal has an interesting article about the dramatic rise in the cost of building materials during the last year, and particularly since hurricane Katrina.

Concrete has risen quite a bit, along with most other building materials. Perhaps because of this price increase, some builders in the Springlake development in Woodland are constructing homes on raised foundations, instead of concrete slabs.

Interestingly, the original push towards concrete slabs in the 1960s was motivated by the desire of builders to lower building costs. This change was considered by many to be a step down in terms of home quality. In new home construction, a raised foundations can offer aesthetic and practical advantages when compared to concrete slabs. (When dealing with older homes, a raised foundation gives rise to the potential for foundation deterioration from water damage, dry rot and termites, which potentials are not present in concrete slabs).

At any rate, the increases in building materials costs are likely to come mostly out of the builders' bottom lines, at least until the market price of homes adjusts upward to reflect increased materials cost.
Housing Price Futures On The Way, Posted 11/23/05
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange will begin trading housing price futures contracts this Spring. The contracts will track housing prices in 10 major U.S. Cities, Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington D.C., or a composite of all of them. For property owners in these cities, this will be a valuable tool, particularly for investors. If a homeowner thinks real estate prices are going to decline, they could purchase a futures put option to hedge against that risk. Likewise, someone worried about being priced out of the market could buy futures contracts or call options.  Generally, there are a number of strategies that could be employed to make money in any market. Hopefully, a contract will be created for the Sacramento region. Here is an article about it.
Buyers' Market In Sacramento Region, Posted 11/19/05
The Sacramento Bee is acknowledging that the Sacramento regional market has made an abrupt shift from a strong sellers' market as recently as July, to a buyers' market now. Regional inventories, at about 4000 last quarter, are over 11,000 now, and more inventory is added each week.  Regional sales volume is down 20% from this time last year.  As usual, the quoted real estate agents are predicting merely a moderation in price increases. I, as usual, make no prediction, as the factors involved in housing price movements are complex and many. I will say that after the sellers' market of recent years, almost six months of inventory does not feel like a "neutral market."
Voters Reject Covell Village, Posted 11/09/05
Davis voters soundly rejected Covell Village in yesterday's election.  The margin was almost 20%.  That is a very large margin of loss, especially when you consider that the Yes on X campaign was very well run, and had the support of the vast majority of community leaders.

The net result of this vote is that Davis has removed itself from the planning process.  No developer will bother talking to the City of Davis, because there is no way any significant project can be approved by voters, even if all the Measure X opponents endorsed it.  Davis voters simply won't vote for development, period.  As a result, Yolo County is now the forum in which growth on Davis' border will be debated and planned.  The Bee has an interesting article about this issue here.

Hopefully, the local real estate market, which has been very slow as the election approached, will begin to pick-up now that the uncertainty of the election is removed.

Covell Village Would Be Good For Local Housing Market, Posted 11/02/05
I've talked to several potential home sellers lately worried that passage of Covell Village, on the November 8th ballot in Davis as Measure X, will negatively effect Davis home values. This notion is probably incorrect.

The Davis housing market moves with the regional market. If Natomas homes increase or decrease in value 10%, Davis home values will do the same, more or less. The 60 market-rate units per year that would be built in Covell Village will have little if any effect on local home prices. In 1997, when there were more than 900 homes built in Davis, housing prices increased nicely, in lock-step with prices in the Sacramento region.
Media Finally Acknowledges Market Cooling, Posted 10/19/05
The Sacramento Market is cooling off, as I noted in my August 19, post. There's finally an article about it in the Bee today. The article notes that inventories are twice as high as they were a year ago. Actually, they are twice as high as they were about 90 days ago. And inventories continue to build at a very rapid pace in the greater Sacramento region.
Fed Raises Rates, Posted 09/20/05
The Fed raised rates 0.25% today, even in the face of the economic damage caused by Katrina.  This might not be as odd as it first appears given that Katrina-related reconstruction will give rise to inflationary pressures as building material demand increases.

The Biz Journal has an article surveying the national housing market.

Sac Bee Article, Posted 09/11/05
The Bee is running a three part feature on the regional housing market.  Here's the first and second part.
Regional Real Estate Market Starts Down, Posted 08/19/05
The Sacramento is Bee reporting today what has been apparent watching the regional housing market for a few weeks now. The market in the Sacramento area has started a price correction. The number of new listings has been exceeding the number of properties sold by about 30-50% for several weeks. The number of price reductions has picked-up substantially in just the last few days.

Davis is a different story, so far. Although there has been a leveling off of prices recently, and the number of sales is down significantly from this time last year, inventory in the sub-$700,000 price range is still low.  Likewise, the average time on the market is still very low, at 35 days for homes sold thus far in August.  The residential income market, regarding duplexes, triplexes and such, is the only soft area of the market, with high inventory and not many buyers.
School Test Scores Rise, Posted 08/17/05
Scores in Davis-area schools are on the rise. Here is an article in the Enterprise about it.
Apartment Vacancies Fall in Sacramento, Posted 07/20/05
The Bee has an article on the latest numbers from the Sacramento apartment market.  The Davis rental market, meanwhile, is weaker than in previous years.  I suspect the influx of investors purchasing homes for their UCD students to live in has been the main reason for the increase in Davis vacancies.
Covell Village Goes To Voters, Posted 06/22/05
The City Council last night voted 4-1, with Sue Greenwald dissenting, to approve the Covell Village development proposal.  It now must be approved by a majority of Davis voters in this November's election.

Covell Village represents the most ambitious planning effort I've ever heard of anywhere.  It provides the City of Davis with a roadmap for slow (probably too slow) growth until at least 2018.  I offer my complements to the hundreds of the people who have worked so hard to bring to project to this point.

I'm very excited about this project.  I think it will usher in a boom-time for Davis, with thousands of local craftsmen, engineers, business persons, professionals, and artisans (among others) collaborating to build a collectively-conceived and constructed work of art.  The project will surely garner national and international attention once it's complete.  Here's looking forward to November.

Foreclosure Rates Drop in CA, Posted 06/22/05
Those predicting that the "housing bubble" is going to burst base their reasoning in part on the notion that over-stretched homeowners will begin defaulting on their loans in droves, causing foreclosures and a resulting flood of homes onto the market. If this is going to happen, there is no sign of it yet. The foreclosure rate in California dipped 16 percent in April and May of this year. Here is a story about it.
Sac Rail Yard Development Proposed, Posted 06/18/05
Millennia Sacramento finally filed a development application for old Union Pacific rail yard. The development on 238 acres would include 10,000 residential units, along with mixed use areas, office, and retail. The developers have also left room for a new arena. The renderings show high-rise condo projects. This will be interesting to watch, given the complexities of the project in terms of toxics and politics. Here is a story about it.  Here is another.

Covell Village In The News, Posted 05/17/05
The Davis Enterprise has published two stories about Covell Village. The first story is pretty good, discussing the general aspects of the project.

The second story, supposedly addressing the fiscal impact of the project on Davis City government, is very poorly researched and misleading.

The story states that the net fiscal impact of the project on the City's finances will be from a worst case scenario of minus $284,000 per year, to a best case of positive $344,000 per year. The problem with this analysis is that it fails to include the $1.7 million extra that the Covell Village developers have agreed to pay the City each year (an amount not included in the fiscal study, which merely looked at traditional sources of income from new developments), and the more that $25 million that the project will contribute to the City's Major Projects Fund, which will go to build parks, pools, and other community facilities across the City. Hopefully, the real story will get out before the citizens vote on this project.
Davis Unveils Crime-Mapping Website, Posted 04/25/05
The Davis Police Department has unveiled a website that will map criminal activity in and around the City. Here is a link to it.
Commercial Real Estate Finally Picking-Up, Posted 04/24/05
Today's Bee has a story about a pick-up in the local commercial real estate market.
Yolo County Swamped With Development Applications, Posted 04/08/05
The Yolo County planning staff has announced that its small planning staff cannot cope with the flood of development applications now pending. Developers have filed applications with the County to build more than 3500 housing units in unincorporated areas around the periphery of Davis. Here is a story about it.
Million Dollar Ceiling Shattered?, Posted 04/07/05
Between September 1, 2004, and the end of February 2005, a total of nine homes over $1 million were sold in Davis. That's nine in six months.

Since the beginning of March 2005, there have been nine sales of $1 million-plus homes. I.e., nine in the last 40 days. It certainly seems possible that the important $1 million price ceiling has been blown away in the Davis market.

Interestingly, today's edition of USA Today has an article today about a nationwide increase in $1 million-plus home sales.
First Stadiums, Now Parks, Posted 03/23/05
The Gold Rush Park foundation has been presented five plans for a potential 1000 acre park in the Sacramento rail yard area. Here is a story about it.

The plan is basically to promise a big park as a way to gain political support for a large development project. The Covell Village partners tried this back in the 1990s, when they presented a plan for the Covell Village site that included a huge new park complex. At that time, the community had seen a huge spurt of Sacramento-like sprawl, and was in no mood to approve any new development.

The Kings-Stadium-for-development proposal recently faltered. It will be interesting to see if the park-for-development idea works any better.
Middle Income Housing, Posted 03/16/05
The City Council has now set a 3 percent per year appreciation cap on homes bought by low income people, and a 5 percent cap for homes bought under the "middle income" requirements for new developments.  The idea behind this new rule is to keep affordable homes affordable.  Here is a story about it.
Negotiating In A Sellers Market, Posted 02/28/05
Anyone looking for a home in Davis in the below-$450,000 range will quickly come to understand the practical implications of home-shopping in a "seller's market." When modern homes come on the market in this price range, there are often multiple offers. This results in multiple losers, and multiple mad clients. Buyers should prepare themselves to lose a few bidding wars, and understand how to make your offer stand out to the seller to minimize those losses. Here is a helpful article on negotiating in a seller's market.
Sacramento Housing Overvalued?, Posted 02/19/05
A study of the national housing market by National City Corp., or large mortgage lender suggests that the Sacramento housing market is overvalued by 25%, and Stockton 43%. In other words, this study asserts that there is a price bubble in Central Valley housing. We have heard this for years, but prices keep climbing. Why is it that newspapers always publish these predictions, but never do a follow-up story saying that the predictions and the predictors were wrong. If they did, we would see a story every week about how such-and-such economist predicted a housing crash last year, and how he or she didn't know what they were talking about. Empirically, these economist's predictions are no better than a "stock-pickin'-chicken."

Another story in the Bee relates to the ongoing attempts by Doug Ose and his family, on one hand, and developer Angelo Tsakopoulos on the other, to develop huge swaths of farmland in North Natomas. The Ose group is trying to secure entitlements through the normal County and City processes, while the Tsakopoulos group is trying to make an end-run around most of these processes by an initiative. It will be very interesting to see if a well-funded anti-Tsakopoulos-development campaign organization forms. The Tsakopoulos proposal would be very vulnerable to any such campaign.
Nugget Market Honored, Posted 02/08/05
When I'm giving new clients a tour of Davis, I always point out the Nugget Market because I think it is a great grocery store. Apparently, Progressive Grocer magazine agrees. The magazine named Nugget, based in Woodland, as one to the top three "Outstanding Independent Grocers" in the United States. The magazine writes:

"Having thrived for generations in a market chock full of aggressive national and local competitors, the entire Nugget Markets organization runs on a high level of passionate commitment -- not only to its people, but also to food, product knowledge, superior service, excitement and community..."

Here is a Sacramento Business Journal article on this subject.
CEQA Lawsuit Seeks To Stop Tiny Townhouse Project, Posted 02/03/05
A group of Davis neighbors have sued the Cal Aggie Christian Association over a six-unit townhouse project approved in their neighborhood. They want the CA to prepare a full Environmental Impact Report for six small units. 

This case demonstrates that lawsuits are going to be a major barrier to small, high density "infill" developments in Davis, as envisioned by some slow-growth advocates.  People simply don't like having their neighborhoods redeveloped with crammed-together town houses, and are likely to sue anyone who tries to undertake such a project.  And small projects cannot shoulder the astronomical legal and consulting fees associated with preparing a full environmental impact report, to say nothing of the costs of defending against a CEQA lawsuit.

Vote On Covell Village Delayed, Posted 02/03/05
You heard it here first: The City Council has decided to delay the Measure J vote regarding Covell Village until November, rather than having it in June. This puts Covell Village on an "intermediate timeline," as I predicted in a previous post. I.e. we will probably not see the first new home at Covell Village until sometime around Spring 2008, if ever.

The delay regarding the election was related mostly to the reams of public comments on the Environmental Impact Report regarding the project. As they do with every project, local zero-growth advocates are making various claims that the EIR is essentially worthless. However, their underlying goal is not to procure a perfect EIR, but rather to kill Covell Village by delaying the project until a zero-growth City Council is elected, which can promptly scuttle the entire thing.

I believe that the no-growth advocates are misguided, if well-intentioned. Historically no-growth politics has had little if any effect on growth. Rather, it has simply resulted in a "boom and bust" cycle, characterized by the speedy approval of Sacramento-like subdivisions when the pendulum swings to its pro-growth apex. In other words, it results in development by out-of-town developers (there are currently Sacramento and New York-based developers waiting to pounce as soon as the top blows off the pressure cooker) without serious community-focused planning. The political pendulum is still swinging toward a pro-growth City Council, and will continue to do so until enough development is approved to moderate the local housing crisis.
December Home Sales Set Record, Posted 01/25/05
The number of existing homes sold were up 16% in December over the same period last year.  This number represents the number of homes that closed escrow, so it actually reflects increased market activity in November (i.e. most of the homes that closed escrow in December sold in late October or November).

Home prices in Yolo county were up, on average, 31% in the year-over-year period.  That is an increase of 2.58% per month.  Anyone thinking about buying a home in the near future would be well-advised to consider this number carefully, especially if they have a fixed budget ceiling. Put simply, a typical $500,000 home is quickly shrinking and its condition rapidly deteriorating.  If this trend continues, a $500,000 home today will be a $538,700 home this Spring, and a $655,000 home a year from now.

Meanwhile, the number of homes on the market in Davis is at the lowest level in recent memory.  Only 38 properties were on the MLS this morning.  This seasonal ebb should reverse course soon as the Spring season arrives.

You can read the story about the hot market here.

Mace Ranch Elementary Debut Postponed, Posted 01/22/05
The Davis School Board has finally decided the fate of the elementary school in Mace Ranch: It will not open next fall, but rather in the Fall of 2006. And it will open one grade-level at a time, starting with kindergarten, than adding one grade each year.  The School Board had little choice but to put-off the school opening, given the District's declining fiscal outlook and declining enrollment.

The irony surrounding this story is quite thick.  First, Mace Ranch is one of the few neighborhoods in town where lots of elementary-school-aged kids actually live.  Second, Mace Ranch residents pay more in property taxes than just about any neighborhood in town (having, on average, relatively recent tax assessment dates); i.e. they pay the most for schools but get the least, at least in terms of elementary schools (they do have the new Harper Junior High).

I wonder if this is the final word on this subject, and whether the Mace Ranch elementary school will ever actually open at all. Enrollment in elementary schools is declining because the Davis population is aging, and young families with school-aged children cannot afford to live in town. This trend is not going to change in the near future, absent accelerated phasing of Covell Village (very unlikely).  I wonder if anyone has considered simply moving the teachers and classes from one of the other elementary schools in an older facility to the new campus in Mace Ranch?  Why leave the best facility vacant?

You can read more about this story in the Sac Bee and in the Davis Enterprise.

Covell Village When?, Posted 01/03/05
Almost every client looking for a home in Davis asks the same question not long into our first conversation. "When could I buy a home in Covell Village?"

The question really has two parts. The first is the express question: "When?" A second question implied in that question is "When will there be a home of the type I want available in Covell Village?"

The answers are not as simple as the questions.

As to the first question, "When?": The simple answer is: "Nobody knows if it will ever be built at all."  When and if Covell Village is ever developed depends on Davis politics. Four members of the City Council are in favor of building something on the Covell Village property. However, even if the Council approves the project, it still needs to be approved by an affirmative vote of Davis citizens before it can be started. And after that, the project will almost certainly face a lawsuit by local environmentalists. At any rate, here are three possible scenarios:

Fast Timeline: At the earliest, the Council would vote on the project in the first quarter of this year. Then, at the earliest, the election would held sometime in June 2005. Then, the lawsuit would be filed. If the Covell Village partners immediately settled the lawsuit (as did the Duffels in connection with the Wildhorse development), by May 2006 (after about 10 months of further city processing and detailed engineering) lots could be ready for sale at Covell Village. The first lots could be ready for construction in summer 2006, with the first homes being occupied in the spring of 2007. Thus, the fastest reasonably likely time that someone might move into a Covell Village home is about 2 years 3 months from today.

This "fastest" scenario is possible, but any number of occurrences could derail this timeline. First, the voters might reject the proposal. Second, the lawsuit might not be settled quickly or at all.  Third, weather might delay improvements of the site (this is quite likely).  Fourth, the election could be delayed until November 2005 or later.  Etc., etc., etc.

Intermediate Timeline:  An intermediate timeline is, in my opinion, most probable. Under this scenario, some combination of the myriad potential delays occur, temporarily delaying the project. For example, the plebiscite regarding the project might be put off until November. In that case, the above timeline would be delayed by another, say, four to six months. 

More likely, one of the parties may refuse to settle the lawsuit. The Covell Village partners include my father, John Whitcombe. He has a well-earned reputation for refusing to settle what he believes are bogus lawsuits out of business expediency. Any lawsuit regarding Covell Village would surely fit this description. I don't know whether he and the other partners would make an exception in this case and pay-off the environmentalists and their attorney. Likewise, the environmentalists might refuse to settle for mere money. This is somewhat unlikely, given their history of accepting monetary settlements.

If the lawsuit proceeds until final judgment, the timeline would be delayed for at least six months, and by as much as 5 years. As an attorney who has worked on these types of cases, my best guess would be that the case would be filed two months after the project is approved by the Council, and would settle after six to 12 months. Under this scenario, the first homes would be ready at Covell Village in about 3 years 3 months from today.


Never, or somewhere in that range:  The project could, of course, be delayed much longer than 3 years. If voters reject Covell Village, the developers are likely to sell the property of a corporate development company (they receive inquiries from such entities frequently). When and if such an entity would be able to develop the property is anyone's guess. Likewise, if the lawsuit is never settled, it would take at least 2 1/2 years to run its way through the appeals process. And if the California Supreme Court were to accept review of the case, add another one to two years.

So, the short answer to the first question is, "Nobody knows when you will be able to get a home at Covell Village, but certainly not for about 2 years 3 months, and more likely about 3 years and 3 months."

The second question is: "When and if Covell Village is finally available, what type of homes will be available?"

The answer to this question a bit more clear. There will not be very many large lots. If you, like many of my clients, are looking for a good-sized home (say 3000 square feet or more) on a good-sized lot (say 10,000 square feet), Covell Village is unlikely to help you. Last time I looked, there were only about 60 lots in the 9000-11,000 square foot range. If the project is phased over 7 years, that means that Covell Village will only provide 8.6 lots in this range each year, on average. There will almost surely be a lottery for these lots. I would not count on being able to buy one, ever. Luckily, Davis is full of large lots. Just not in Covell Village.

If you are interested in a medium sized home on a medium sized lot, Covell Village is more likely to have a home for you. There will be several hundred lots in the 5000-7000 square foot range. These homes will fit nice-sized homes averaging about 2500 square feet. The larger lots in this range will also allow for a decent back yard. Keep in mind that these lots will also be difficult to come-by, and a lottery is likely. Still, your chances of getting one of these are, in my opinion, relatively good.

If you are a middle or low income person or family interested in a smaller home, in the 800 to 1500 square foot range, on a smaller lot, Covell Village is likely to offer homes that suit you. Mayor Ruth Asmundson has led an effort to ensure that fully 25 percent of Covell Village homes are affordable to low income families, and another 25 percent are affordable to middle-income families. Most or all of these homes will be subsidized. Because of the subsidy, the demand for these homes will likely outstrip supply considerably, and a waiting list will start forming as soon as the project is approved.

So there it is. Keep in mind that this is just my humble, if somewhat informed, opinion about the matters discussed.
Vacancy Rate Rises Davis, Posted 12/22/04
UCD has released its annual survey of vacancies in Davis. Here is an article about it.

The vacancy rate is 3.3 percent, down from last year's 1.7 percent. That is still a very low number. However, it worth noting that Tandem Properties has virtually zero vacancy out of about 1800 apartment units. The vacancy rate for other properties is probably closer to 4.2 percent.  A 5 percent vacancy rate would signal the official end of the "landlord's market" in Davis.

As of today, there are 193 ads for rentals in the Davis Enterprise, and many of those are for apartment projects with multiple vacancies. Are the owners of vacant rental houses in for a difficult patch? It's hard to say as a general matter, but to someone with a vacant rental house, the vacancy rate is 100 percent.
Conaway Bought By Developers, Posted 12/20/04
The Conaway Ranch, a 17,000 acre farm along Interstate 5 East of Woodland, has been purchased for about $60 million by a group led by Steve Gidaro, a Sacramento-based individual with well-known aspirations to develop farmland in Yolo County. The Davis Enterprise has a story about it with a bit of background here.

This is certainly an interesting turn of events. A mystery surrounds the question of who the purchaser, the Conaway Preservation Group, is. The individuals with interests in the company have not been disclosed, although Gidaro's participation can be deduced from the address on the deed. A mystery also surrounds the question of what these folks intend to do with the property.

The Enterprise story is good, but to fully understand the context of this turn of events, you need to understand one thing:  Among regional duck hunters, the Conaway Ranch enjoys almost mythic status. It is a place where a novice hunter can spend a short morning and bring home a string of ducks to rival a duck-calling champion's day-long hunt. The ducks swarming the Conaway at dawn are truly a sight to behold.  Steve Gidaro and several other Valley residents have held the Conaway hunting rights for a long while. 
I can't help but ask the question, how much did the ducks have to do with this acquisition?

Of course, the Gidaro group is made up of developers. They must have some development-related ideas about how to return their investment.

I can imagine three potential ways. First, they could plan on securing entitlements and developing it. That would be very difficult. Neither the County nor the City of Woodland would be likely to entitle any significant portion of the Conaway in the near future. This plan would only be viable if their development plans were very long term, in the 20-year range.

The second option would be to plan on selling development rights to other developers for mitigation purposes, or using the development rights to offset other development. The current push by Angelo Tsakopoulos to develop 10,000 acres in the North Natomas area might fit into such a scheme. Tsakopoulos has stated that he would set aside 10,000 acres of ag mitigation for his 10,000 acres in Natomas. Could his development group be part of the Conaway Preservation Group?

The third option would be to sell the land to the group of governmental entities now eyeing it. If they could negotiate a $65 million sale price while retaining the hunting rights (which the government doesn't need), they would make $5 million, and have the ducks to boot.

I don't actually think the ducks are the basis for the Gidaro group's purchase of the Conaway. But I can guarantee you one thing: The thought of losing the Conaway's hunting rights got their creative juices flowing like the Sacramento River in an El Nino February.
Slowing Home Prices Predicted, Again, Posted 12/19/04
Lately, I have seen several articles quoting real estate industry observers noting the extremely high rate of appreciation in Yolo and Sacramento County homes, but predicting that home prices will slow or even reverse course in the near future. Here is a typical example. 

This is not the first time we have heard such predictions, and they don't seem to have any unassailable logical underpinning. As I have said before, the matrix of factors that dictate housing prices in this region (interest rates, migration from the coast, supply restrictions imposed by government, income and job growth, etc.) is virtually impossible to forecast with any degree of reliability. In my humble opinion trying to predict housing prices is little more than a good opportunity to make yourself look dumb. As usual, only time will tell.

Housing Starts Down, Unemployment Claims Down More, Posted 12/16/04
National housing starts plunged by 13.1% in November, the largest single-month fall since 1993. Meanwhile, builders across the country have been getting creative in their marketing efforts, offering, for example, new plasma-screen TVs to homebuyers. Still, the Sacramento area is somewhat insulated from any negative national trend due to the mass migration of people to the Central Valley from the coastal regions, and the increasingly restrictive attitude of local governments towards new development.

Also today, a report showed that last week's first-time unemployment claims dropped 43,000 to a seasonally adjusted 317,000. A growing job market is generally indicated by a number below 400,000. This is a very substantial drop in unemployment, enough to suggest the possibility of a real and sustainable increase in employment. I tell my interest-rate-sensitive clients to closely watch this number, because when unemployment numbers improve dramatically, higher interest rates are likely close behind. With this number, it is more important than ever to watch the first time claims number over the coming weeks. And if you want to lock in low interest rates, now might be a good time.
Rates up again, Posted 12/16/04
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points at the Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday, December 15, 2004. This was the fifth rate increase in a row.  The discount rate target now stands at 2.25%, still very low by historical standards.

Meanwhile, longer term rates remain low after a brief spike. Last week, the 10 year treasury bond broke above the 4.30% mark for the first time in quite a while. But traders bid the treasury market back up (and interest rates down) after Friday's disappointing job numbers. The yield on the 10-year now stands at about 4.17%, well within its trading range over the last few years.  But market-spurred rate increases might be coming soon (see above story).
Green Begets Green, Posted 12/10/04
The Wharton School of Finance just released a well controlled study in which it found that homes with lots of trees and other "green" areas sell for more than their less well-planted counterparts. When existing homes are compared, the ones with lots of trees were, on average, nine percent more valuable than similar homes with fewer trees and vegetation. This analysis is consistent with internal Whitcombe & Co. studies that compared the imputed land values in newer subdivisions with smaller trees (like Wildhorse) to fully matured neighborhoods (like Covell Park). Indeed, our studies suggest that growing vegetation continues to add value to property for at least twenty years when it reaches full maturity, and mature vegetation can add as much 20% to imputed land value.

But the truly astonishing result from the Wharton study relates to subdivisions containing vacant lots. Vacant lots that have been "cleaned and greened" are worth a remarkable 69 percent more than just brown dirt. Normally, developers sell "mapped units" of bare dirt to homebuilders. If they can increase their revenues by anywhere approaching 69 percent by greening-up their land, it clearly makes economic sense to do so.

You can read about the Wharton study here.
$700,000 Homes In Woodland?, Posted 12/05/04
Many local custom home builders are soon to steer their businesses into uncharted waters, right across the Spring Lake development in Woodland. Spring Lake consists of several thousand lots for single family homes. Apparently, a local real estate brokerage that controls a custom home tract in Spring Lake, is recommending that the small builders construct high-end 2000-plus square foot homes in this area. Given that the lot prices (which have not yet been set) will be quite high, the builders tell me they will need to sell such homes for around $700,000 to make a reasonable profit.

And they say they are nervous. Selling a home for $700,000 in Davis is one thing. For decades, Davis has been attractive to migrating professionals from the Bay Area who like the idea of their kids mingling with professor's kids in a crime-free, art-filled environment. Accordingly, the the pool of buyers in the $650,000-plus segment has been relatively high.

Now Spring Lake is a very nice development by any standard.  It will surely be a nice place to live, and the custom homes themselves will be outstanding. But imputed square foot lot values tell an interesting story. In Woodland, Whitcombe & Co. internal analysis indicates that land in nice neighborhoods is worth, on average, about $23 per square foot. In Davis, the number is much, much higher.

The point is simply that, at least arguably, Davis and Woodland homes are totally different products.  When you buy a home in Davis, something like 40 percent of the money you pay is not for your home, but for the matrix of tangible and intangible amenities that make Davis Davis.  Given that you can find a very nice home in Davis in the $700,000 price range, is it possible that selling a bunch of $700,000 homes in Woodland might be a challenge? That is the question the builders are asking.

I personally think the nervousness is misplaced.  Spring Lake and the custom homes will be plenty nice enough to compete with smaller and older similarly-priced homes in Davis.  But only time will tell.

Stem Cells Growing In Davis?, Posted 11/25/04
The Enterprise has an article today about the need for Davis to provide places for high tech businesses to grow, and the supposed efforts being undertaken to secure such space.

Members of a partnership of which I am a participant will be meeting with UCD officials in December to discuss the possibility of using at least some portion of the Nishi Property, a 40+ acre parcel between Interstate 80 and UCD, for University or possibly other government biotech facilities, and/or biotech business and lab facilities.

Davis clearly has the potential to become a, if not the, world leader in biotech given UCD's already substantial credentials in that regard, and the amount of vacant land on which to expand and complement that capacity, and the $3 billion allocated under the recently voter-approved Prop. 71. Under Prop. 71, the newly formed California Institute For Regenerative Medicine has $300 million to spend on new facilities.  Things may move fast in this area, if they are going to move at all. Stay tuned.
Fed Raises Interest Rates, Posted 11/13/04
As expected, the Federal Reserve raised the discount rate by 0.25% at their meeting on Wednesday, November 10, 2004. Most analysts expect this trend to continue, and the the Fed will increase the discount rate by another 0.25% at its December meeting.

Rates on adjustable rate mortgages are likely to climb as the Fed raises rates, as these mortgages are normally tied to short term interest rates.
A New Door to Opportunity, Posted 11/06/04
A new study by Therma-Tru Doors finds that upgraded entrances can boost a residence's perceived value by on average 3.2 percent to 6.6 percent. A brand-new entry will cost anywhere from $2,000 to $20,000.

In Davis, with an average selling price of over $500,000, this would mean at least a $15,000 increase in perceived value. But the real value may be in making a home more marketable. You only have one chance to make a good first impression.
More Density At Covell Village?, Posted 10/29/04
In a workshop meeting Wednesday night, the Davis Planning Commission was unanimous in its suggestion that the proposed Covell Village project be more dense, i.e. have smaller lots and more townhouses and multiplexes. You can read about it here.

This is a reasonable suggestion in the abstract, at least to the point that it would be supported by economic realities. It is quite true that Davis already has a large number of relatively large lots and homes, and more smaller and cheaper homes would be a benefit to the community. However, as Commissioner Terry Whittier first noted, there is a balance that must be achieved between small and large units. He was pointing, I believe, to a simple reality: The smaller units pay less taxes, not enough to pay for the public services (schools, etc.) that they consume. The larger homes pay more taxes per capita, and thus subsidize the small units.

The bottom line is that if you have too few large homes, the economic study regarding the project will come back "negative," i.e. the project will not pay its own way. This would make the project politically unfeasible, in that neither the Council nor the voters would likely approve an additional financial burden on the already cash-strapped City.

Currently, only 23% of the project consists of lots over 7500 square feet. That is already a very small number of "large" lots by any historical standard. As a point of reference, almost all of the lots in the Core Area of Davis range from about 6500 to 7500 square feet.
Gifted Davis Kids, Posted 10/24/04
The Bee carries an article today about "gifted" kids in Davis, and the Davis Joint Unified School District's methods of dealing with them.

Apparently, 35% of Davis students are "gifted." No surprise, given:

"The 64,500-resident city is dominated by the 30,000-student University of California campus, and in recent years, new high-quality homes have drawn increasing numbers of two-income professional households. Nearly 69 percent of Davis residents over age 24 have at least a bachelor's degree and 36 percent have graduate degrees. Statewide, 26 percent of residents are college graduates and 10 percent hold graduate degrees."
Middle Income Housing, Posted 10/14/04
On October 12, 2004, the Davis City Council voted to expand the City's low cost housing program. The program now requires that all new development provide (1) 25% of the units for low and very low income individuals (no change here), and (2) a further 25% for "middle income" people.

It is unclear whether
"middle income" will be defined according the Yolo County median income, as of the 2000 census, or according to actual median income of Davis itself.  The later would make sense, given that the goal of the middle income housing requirement is to provide affordable housing for internally-generated housing needs.

If the County figure is used, the City's new program would require that the middle income housing be in the form of homes costing between $282,000 to $380,000. These numbers will go up significantly if the Davis median income is used, to a top value of around $450,000.
Lion Alert, Posted 10/12/04
The Davis Enterprise and just about every other regional news outlet recently reported that a Davis resident sited a mountain lion in North Davis.

Well, I can vouch for that because I was the person who saw the lion.

In recent months, North Davis Farms residents have spotted coyotes (almost every day), a muskrat, a red fox, raccoons, and now a mountain lion, among hundreds of other species of animals.

Whatever you think about the lion, its clear that the area along the Northern edge of Davis is now supporting a vibrant Central Valley ecosystem. For conservationists, this ability of people and nature to coexist seems very healthy for both the people and animals. Indeed, very few people ever have the opportunity to see a mountain lion in the wild.

But be careful. Lions have been known to attack children and even adults, as well as house pets (although they are normally very scared of dogs, at least medium and large ones). Everyone should take a few simple precautions, or stay out of the wooded areas.

First, don't go running in or near the overgrown areas at twilight or after dark, unless you have a good sized dog or person with you.

Second, people under 120 pounds should avoid venturing into secluded areas alone, particularly if they are jogging or running (running triggers the cat's killer instinct). Generally, don't let children go wandering around in the wooded areas, at least until we give the lion a few days to leave the area.

The bottom line is that if you take a few simple precautions, you should be safe. And if you see the lion, you can count yourself a member of a very small club.

Items of Interest, Posted 10/01/04
There are several recent news items that may be of interest to our readers:

Construction spending hit an all time high in August.

People living in suburban sprawl have more health problems, and live four years less than others. This difference is thought to be attributable to the fact that people in tract developments don't walk anywhere, but always have to drive. Another argument for pedestrian focused developments like Covell Village.

The United States Supreme Court has agreed to hear a case that will likely define government's power to take an individual's private property. Currently, governments can condemn property for a "public purpose," as long as they pay the owner the market value of the property. Previous Supreme Court decisions have interpreted "public purpose" to mean just about anything the government wants to do, including giving the property to developers for profitable developments. In the current case, the Court will decide if this type of use is really a "public purpose." Given the make-up of the current Court, and the fact that it granted review at all, I would guess that the Court is going to set-forth at least some meaningful restrictions on the government's power of eminent domain.
Davis Housing Market In Hyperinflationary Mode, Posted 9/22/04
Davis home sales data for August are out.  In August, the median home sale price was $545,000. That compares to $422,000 in January, an increase of $123,000 in eight months. Although this "median" figure is fraught with imprecision, the solid upward trend in inescapable.

Homeowners might, at first blush, be pleased about the astronomical rate of increase in the value of their homes.  However, history dictates that we are better off with more moderate price increases.  With increases like this, people arguing that Davis is experiencing a "housing price bubble" become more credible.

The hyperinflation in the housing market is the result of the market-oblivious, ideology centered planning process in Davis. In the late 2001, the General Plan was amended by anti-growth advocates. They literally removed all planned developments from the General Plan. To a lawyer like myself, the irony could scarcely be thicker: By removing everything from the General Plan, the anti-development advocates used the General Plan, which is legally required to PLAN for inevitable growth, to absolutely guarantee that there would be ZERO planning.

But fault for these price increases also rests with the current City Council.  To its credit, the Council appears to be supporting Covell Village project, which will do something to cool the market, and much to increase the variety and quality of housing inventory in Davis.  On the other hand, the Council has set a policy of permitting only 250 units per year, including new apartment units, and including the approximately 50 units per year to be built by UCD (these units will only be available to UCD-affiliated people). Thus, the City will only hand out 200 building permits per year.

The long term average in Davis is closer to 350 units per year, and even that number didn't come close stop housing price increases. Even in the late 1990s when Davis peaked at close 1000 homes one year, and almost 900 the next, prices stayed stable and even rose a bit. It was only in the early 1990s, in a high interest rate environment and a recession that we saw a period of price softness in Davis.

The City's current allocation comes out to about 13 single family homes per month. With the current housing inventory shortage in Davis (we only have about 1.4 month's supply), that is like a proverbial drop in the ocean. It would take about 300 units flooding the market in a single DAY to bring inventories to a healthy (but still increasing price) environment with a 6-month inventory.

One has to feel sorry for new professors or teachers moving to town and unable to find even a cottage that they can afford. And this is to say nothing of the waitresses, gas station attendants, construction workers, or other people who keep this community afloat.

Building Costs Up, Posted 9/22/04
The Jacksonville Daily News has an article, as reported by the NAR, noting that:

"Homebuilders and contractors across the country have watched the cost of concrete, steel, plywood, insulation, asphalt, vinyl siding, and other materials soar by upwards of 50 percent in the last year."

This trend is somewhat alarming to small builders in the Davis, Sacramento area. I was speaking with a local builder yesterday, and he spontaneously complained that a siding job that cost $18,000 for his last job was just bid out for his current job at $26,000. He rightly observes that the contractors want to get rich too along with the builders, given the skyrocketing home prices in Davis. That seems fair, in a perverse sort of way, given that the local spec home builders have made very large sums in the recent past, just holding a few lots while they build their spec houses. Indeed, the builder I was talking to didn't even build a house on the last lot he had in inventory (and I mean the last lot he had, there are no more), but sold it for about a $140,000 profit after holding it for 18 months.

The point here is that in Davis, its not only materials costs that are driving-up construction costs. Its those darned subs.

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