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Note from Joseph: "HAPPY NEW
YEAR! The price decline we saw in properties that actually sold in
the late fall (rather than the ones sitting on the market without selling) is
beginning to settle across the listings on the market. Prices have
been essentially stable since September 2006. Keep in mind that
prices usually rise in the Davis real estate market from January to
August. Even last year, in a very down market, prices from January
to August were essentially unchanged. After a price decline in the
20% range, the downside price risk in the near-term may be low.
For the first time in a while, you can find a good all-around house
(i.e. four or more rooms and multiple baths, good condition, at least
some yard, a full garage, etc.) for around $575,000. If I were
going to buy a house in the next two or three years, I'd probably start
shopping about now."
Joseph Whitcombe is a REALTOR, real estate broker, and attorney at law. Mr. Whitcombe
specializes in serving buyers and sellers of homes, condos, and
investment properties in Davis, California. Whitcombe & Co.
had the highest average transaction value of any real estate agency in
Davis in 2005 and 2006.
"I'm here to
help. Please give me a call on my cell phone at (530) 219-1000 for any
reason..."
Email Joseph at: contact@davismls.com
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In This Issue:
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* Whitcombe & Co. highest
transaction value again. |
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* November-December Real Estate Market Report For Davis |
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* Listings of note |
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Whitcombe & Co. has highest
average transaction value for 2006 |
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Whitcombe & Co. had the highest average transaction
value of any Davis-focused real estate agency in 2005.
We had the same distinction in 2006. Here are the
numbers:
| Company |
Average Transaction Value |
| Whitcombe & Co. |
$651,000 |
| Lyon Real Estate - Davis |
$615,000 |
| Coldwell Banker - Davis |
$609,000 |
| Re/MAX Gold - Davis |
$601,000 |
| Century 21 - Davis |
$504,000 |
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These
numbers are based on MLS data comparing real estate
agencies that had 5 or more sales in the Davis market
during calendar year 2006. |
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End of Year Market Report For Davis:
Seasonally low sales a bit behind last year's pace, time on market
jumps, overall inventory falls sharply in normal seasonal
adjustment, and prices fall back to around September lows. |
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November and December are usually the slowest months in the housing
market, and the final months of 2006 were just that. 30 homes, condos, and halfplexes
closed escrow during each month, for a total of 60 (note that
these numbers are actually
indicative of market activity in October and November 2006 when most of the sales
actually went pending). These numbers were a bit lower
than the 68 units sold in during the same time period of
2005.
In October, the average time on market of sold properties
rose to 96 days, up from 50 in October. Housing prices
using my favorite measure, median price per square foot,
were $306.32 in November, and $307.69 in December, back down
to the range of the $310.12
per
square foot in September. The more volatile median
sale price also fell significantly to $562,000 in December from
$605,000 in October, and the average price per square foot
fell to $313 in December from $330 in October.
The overall inventory of homes, condos, and halfplexes in
Davis fell very sharply to 107 units, from 176 units at the writing of
the last Newsletter, and down
from a high of about 265 in the Spring.

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| Price Range |
Current
Market Conditions |
| Up to
$300,000 |
The
sub-$300,000 market has moved into technical
"sellers' market" territory with six units on
the market and two sales in the last 30 days. It
is quite possible that the La Buena Vida condos (the
little condos off of Pole Line Road) have found a price
bottom in the $235,000 to $250,000 price range.
However, although there are only six units for sale
under $300,000, in the last couple months, three
listings have expired without selling, and two more have
been cancelled, all without reappearing. My guess
is that of these five units not on the market, most if
not all will be back this Spring. This market is
still likely in a "buyers' market", for
practical purposes.
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| $300,001-$400,000 |
This
price range continues in "buyers'
market." Although there is just over four
months technical supply (with four pending sales in the last 30
days and 17 active listings), there are more than a
dozen cancelled or expired listing that will no doubt
reappear in the Spring.
Price concessions achieved by buyers are inconsistent,
but with some buyers getting more than $20,000 off list prices.
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| $400,001-$500,000 |
With 20 units on the market, and
5 pending sales in the last
month, this price range remains in technical
"neutral market" territory. Price
concessions are now are typically in the $10,000 to $15,000 range.
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| $500,001-$600,000 |
19 homes
closed escrow in this price range in November and
December. That's quite a few. Right now,
with 22 units on the market, and 4 pending sales in the last month, this market
segment is technically close to "buyers' market"
territory. Price concessions have been all over
the board. There are 17 expired or cancelled listings,
most of which will probably reappear this Spring.
But given the large number of sales at the end of this
year, I wonder if this price category might heat up
before long. The high $500,000 range is where you
can now get a good all around house.
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| $600,001-$700,000 |
Inventory
in this price range fell to 17 units. Only one pending sale
was registered in
the last 30 days, placing this market segment in
"buyers'" territory. Price concessions were
all over the board, with one $99,000 below list price.
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| $700,001-$800,000 |
Inventory
fell to 11
listings in this price category. With no pending
sales in the last 30 days, this price range is in
technical "buyers' market" territory.
However, in November and December, normally very slow
months, seven homes in this price range closed
escrow. A buyer in this range can
expect to get about $20,000 off list prices.
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| $800,001-$1,000,000 |
With only
6 listings, and two more pending sales in the last 30
days, this price segment
continues in technical "sellers' market"
territory. However, there are at least half a
dozen properties in this range that have been removed
from the market and may be back this Spring. Price concessions
were again all over the board, some as high as $100,000,
some selling at the list price.
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| Over
$1,000,000 |
Inventory
in
this price range is now only 9 listings, and there were
two pending sales in the last 30 days, placing this segment
in "neutral market" territory. There
are not all that many homes in this price range
that have been temporarily removed from the market, as
far as I can tell.
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| Income
Properties |
With nine
listings and one pending sale in the last month, the income
property market is technically in "buyers' market"
territory.
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| Estimates
reflect Whitcombe & Co.'s subjective assessment of
Davis real estate market conditions based on sales and listing
data from the MLS, general
market activity, and buyer and seller attitudes. A
sellers' real estate market is indicated when homes sell quickly at
or above their listing prices, and/or when inventories are
low. A
neutral real estate market is indicated when homes sell at or just
below their listing prices within a reasonable period of
time, and/or
inventories are moderate. A
buyers' real estate market is indicated when homes tend
to sell for
significantly less than their list prices, remain on
the market for longer periods of time, and/or inventories
are high.
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Listings of note |
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Newer 4/3, 2000-plus square feet in South Davis, in the
$550,000 range. Strange circumstances make this home a
steal. For info, please call me at
(530) 219-1000.
Newer 5/3, almost 2200 square feet, three car garage in
East Davis. Might get it for around $565,000. For info,
please call me at (530) 219-1000.
Modern 4/4 with three years left on builder's warranty,
almost 3000 square feet. Granite, hardwood, etc.
Excellent location. $745,000. This looks like an
incredible deal to me, and I'll be amazed if it doesn't go
fast. For info, please call me at
(530) 219-1000.
Really cool 5/3 architect-designed house in Willowbank on
almost half an acre. It's price has come down about
$200,000 and you could probably get it for around
$890,000. This looks like an incredible deal on an incredible
house to me. This is a special house for a special
person who will "distinguish themselves" by living
there. If you are moving to Davis and want a house
that will impress locals when they find out where you live,
this is a good candidate and a truely rare opportunity.
For info, please call me at
(530) 219-1000.
Huge, modern, beautiful home of .75 acre in the Northern
part of Davis. It's got everything, except a place for
your horses. You could get it for about
$1,200,000. This is a very good deal, in my humble
opinion. For info, please call me at
(530) 219-1000.
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The information in this
newsletter is thought to be accurate, but not guaranteed and should not
be relied upon for any reason. The opinions in this Newsletter are
provided in good faith, but are not guaranteed to be accurate and
should not be relied upon. If you want advice you can rely on in
making decisions about real estate matters, you
should directly consult a real estate broker. The information
regarding market conditions in this newsletter was derived on January 8,
2007, and is believed to be accurate as of that date.
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Copyright
© 2006 Whitcombe & Co., ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
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