Real Estate Newsletter Monday, January 7, 2007

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Note from Joseph:  "HAPPY NEW YEAR!  The price decline we saw in properties that actually sold in the late fall (rather than the ones sitting on the market without selling) is beginning to settle across the listings on the market.  Prices have been essentially stable since September 2006.  Keep in mind that prices usually rise in the Davis real estate market from January to August.  Even last year, in a very down market, prices from January to August were essentially unchanged.  After a price decline in the 20% range, the downside price risk in the near-term may be low.  For the first time in a while, you can find a good all-around house (i.e. four or more rooms and multiple baths, good condition, at least some yard, a full garage, etc.) for around $575,000.  If I were going to buy a house in the next two or three years, I'd probably start shopping about now."

Joseph Whitcombe is a REALTOR, real estate broker, and attorney at law.  Mr. Whitcombe specializes in serving buyers and sellers of homes, condos, and investment properties in Davis, California.  Whitcombe & Co. had the highest average transaction value of any real estate agency in Davis in 2005 and 2006.

"I'm here to help.  Please give me a call on my cell phone at (530) 219-1000 for any reason..."

Email Joseph at:  contact@davismls.com

In This Issue:
  * Whitcombe & Co. highest transaction value again.
  * November-December Real Estate Market Report For Davis
* Listings of note

Whitcombe & Co. has highest average transaction value for 2006

  Whitcombe & Co. had the highest average transaction value of any Davis-focused real estate agency in 2005.  We had the same distinction in 2006.  Here are the numbers:
Company Average Transaction Value
Whitcombe & Co. $651,000
Lyon Real Estate - Davis $615,000
Coldwell Banker - Davis $609,000
Re/MAX Gold - Davis $601,000
Century 21 - Davis $504,000

These numbers are based on MLS data comparing real estate agencies that had 5 or more sales in the Davis market during calendar year 2006.

End of Year Market Report For Davis:  Seasonally low sales a bit behind last year's pace, time on market jumps, overall inventory falls sharply in normal seasonal adjustment, and prices fall back to around September lows.

 

November and December are usually the slowest months in the housing market, and the final months of 2006 were just that. 30 homes, condos, and halfplexes closed escrow during each month, for a total of 60 (note that these numbers are actually indicative of market activity in October and November 2006 when most of the sales actually went pending).  These numbers were a bit lower than the 68 units sold in during the same time period of 2005.

In October, the average time on market of sold properties rose to 96 days, up from 50 in October.  Housing prices using my favorite measure, median price per square foot, were $306.32 in November, and $307.69 in December, back down to the range of the $310.12 per square foot in September.  The more volatile median sale price also fell significantly to $562,000 in December from $605,000 in October, and the average price per square foot fell to $313 in December from $330 in October.

The overall inventory of homes, condos, and halfplexes in Davis fell very sharply to 107 units, from 176 units at the writing of the last Newsletter, and down from a high of about 265 in the Spring.

Price Range Current Market Conditions
Up to $300,000

The sub-$300,000 market has moved into technical "sellers' market" territory with six units on the market and two sales in the last 30 days.  It is quite possible that the La Buena Vida condos (the little condos off of Pole Line Road) have found a price bottom in the $235,000 to $250,000 price range.  However, although there are only six units for sale under $300,000, in the last couple months, three listings have expired without selling, and two more have been cancelled, all without reappearing.  My guess is that of these five units not on the market, most if not all will be back this Spring.  This market is still likely in a "buyers' market", for practical purposes.

$300,001-$400,000

This price range continues in "buyers' market."  Although there is just over four months technical supply (with four pending sales in the last 30 days and 17 active listings), there are more than a dozen cancelled or expired listing that will no doubt reappear in the Spring.  Price concessions achieved by buyers are inconsistent, but with some buyers getting more than $20,000 off list prices.

$400,001-$500,000

With 20 units on the market, and 5 pending sales in the last month, this price range remains in technical "neutral market" territory.  Price concessions are now are typically in the $10,000 to $15,000 range.

$500,001-$600,000

19 homes closed escrow in this price range in November and December.  That's quite a few.  Right now, with 22 units on the market, and 4 pending sales in the last month, this market segment is technically close to "buyers' market" territory.  Price concessions have been all over the board. There are 17 expired or cancelled listings, most of which will probably reappear this Spring.  But given the large number of sales at the end of this year, I wonder if this price category might heat up before long.  The high $500,000 range is where you can now get a good all around house.

$600,001-$700,000

Inventory in this price range fell to 17 units.  Only one pending sale was registered in the last 30 days, placing this market segment in "buyers'" territory.  Price concessions were all over the board, with one $99,000 below list price.

$700,001-$800,000

Inventory fell to 11 listings in this price category.  With no pending sales in the last 30 days, this price range is in technical "buyers' market" territory.  However, in November and December, normally very slow months, seven homes in this price range closed escrow.  A buyer in this range can expect to get about $20,000 off list prices.

$800,001-$1,000,000

With only 6 listings, and two more pending sales in the last 30 days, this price segment continues in technical "sellers' market" territory.  However, there are at least half a dozen properties in this range that have been removed from the market and may be back this Spring.  Price concessions were again all over the board, some as high as $100,000, some selling at the list price.  

Over $1,000,000

Inventory in this price range is now only 9 listings, and there were two pending sales in the last 30 days, placing this segment in "neutral market" territory.  There are not all that many homes in this price range that have been temporarily removed from the market, as far as I can tell.

Income Properties

With nine listings and one pending sale in the last month, the income property market is technically in "buyers' market" territory.

Estimates reflect Whitcombe & Co.'s subjective assessment of Davis real estate market conditions based on sales and listing data from the MLS, general market activity, and buyer and seller attitudes.  A sellers' real estate market is indicated when homes sell quickly at or above their listing prices, and/or when inventories are low.  A neutral real estate market is indicated when homes sell at or just below their listing prices within a reasonable period of time, and/or inventories are moderate.  A buyers' real estate market is indicated when homes tend to sell for significantly less than their list prices, remain on the market for longer periods of time, and/or inventories are high.
Listings of note
 

Newer 4/3, 2000-plus square feet in South Davis, in the $550,000 range.  Strange circumstances make this home a steal.    For info, please call me at (530) 219-1000.

Newer 5/3, almost 2200 square feet, three car garage in East Davis.  Might get it for around $565,000.    For info, please call me at (530) 219-1000.

Modern 4/4 with three years left on builder's warranty, almost 3000 square feet.  Granite, hardwood, etc.  Excellent location.  $745,000.  This looks like an incredible deal to me, and I'll be amazed if it doesn't go fast.  For info, please call me at (530) 219-1000.

Really cool 5/3 architect-designed house in Willowbank on almost half an acre.  It's price has come down about $200,000 and you could probably get it for around $890,000.  This looks like an incredible deal on an incredible house to me.  This is a special house for a special person who will "distinguish themselves" by living there.  If you are moving to Davis and want a house that will impress locals when they find out where you live, this is a good candidate and a truely rare opportunity.  For info, please call me at (530) 219-1000.

Huge, modern, beautiful home of .75 acre in the Northern part of Davis.  It's got everything, except a place for your horses.  You could get it for about $1,200,000.  This is a very good deal, in my humble opinion.  For info, please call me at (530) 219-1000.

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The information in this newsletter is thought to be accurate, but not guaranteed and should not be relied upon for any reason.  The opinions in this Newsletter are provided  in good faith, but are not guaranteed to be accurate and should not be relied upon.  If you want advice you can rely on in making decisions about real estate matters, you should directly consult a real estate broker. The information regarding market conditions in this newsletter was derived on January 8, 2007, and is believed to be accurate as of that date.

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